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A new poll sponsored by California Democrats shows two Republican gubernatorial candidates leading among voters for the state’s June primary — confirming the possibility that Democrats may be “locked out” of the general election, party leaders say. 

The EVITARUS poll released Tuesday, March 24, shows conservative commentator Steve Hilton leading with 16% of likely voters, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco just behind with 14%. 

Three Democratic candidates — Congressman Eric Swalwell, Congresswoman Katie Porter and climate advocate Tom Steyer — trail behind, each capturing 10% of likely voters. The other five Democratic candidates each hold 3% or less of likely voters. 

Twenty-four percent of voters remain undecided. 

The results mirrored other recent surveys, including a March 18 poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times, which also found Hilton and Bianco leading the June primary, with a cluster of Democratic candidates trailing.

Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, said the results are a “clear reminder of an undeniable fact – all candidates must honestly assess their viable path to win.”  

“I continue to call for them to so do,” Hicks said in a news release. “Simply put, it’s the best way to ensure we elect a Democrat as our next Governor and that California continues its strong leadership at home and abroad.” 

The poll, with a sample size of 2,000 and a margin of error of ±2.19 percentage points, was conducted between March 12 and 17. 

Party leaders said they plan to release an updated tracking poll no later than April 7. 

Who are the candidates for California governor’s office? 

Ten candidates, eight Democrats and two Republicans, have filed paperwork for the June 2 primary ballot, according to reporting from CalMatters. 

Those candidates are, according to CalMatters: 

• Xavier Becerra (Democrat): Former United States Secretary of Health and Human Services and California Attorney General 
• Chad Bianco: (Republican): Riverside County Sheriff since 2018 
• Steve Hilton: (Republican): Fox News contributor, who is also a former senior adviser to conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron 
• Matt Mahan (Democrat): Mayor of San Jose 
• Katie Porter (Democrat): U.S. representative from 2019 to 2025 
• Tom Steyer (Democrat): Billionaire environmentalist and presidential candidate in 2020 election 
• Eric Swalwell (Democrat): U.S. representative from the Bay Area 
• Tony Thurmond (Democrat): The 28th California State Superintendent of Public Instruction 
• Antonio Villaraigosa (Democrat): Former Los Angeles mayor and former Assembly Speaker 
• Betty Yee (Democrat): Former California Controller 

A wide field of Democratic candidates for California governor

In California, there is a top-two primary system in which all candidates are listed on the same ballot. The top-two vote-getters move on to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation, meaning there is the potential for two candidates from the same party to face off in the general election.  

As “concerns around the impact of a crowded candidate field persist,” Hicks, in early March, urged candidates to “honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign.”

“We all have a duty to act in a responsible manner with the opportunities and support we have earned,” Hicks wrote in an open letter on Tuesday, March 3. “I believe it starts with a candid assessment of the political landscape around you, an honest reflection on your viability to win the race, and the courage to make a tough choice.”

After a majority of Democratic candidates ignored party leaders’ request, the party announced its plans to “spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on polling to assess the viability” of the candidates, The Los Angeles Times reported.

“Candidates have filed, and now they’ve got the opportunity to showcase their viability, their path to win. I want to simply ensure that everybody has information to fully understand the current state of the race,” Hicks told The Times.

Amid the abundance of candidates, Newsom, earlier this week, in an interview with Politico’s senior political columnist Jonathan Martin, highlighted the difficulty many face in getting their messages to California voters, as daily news coverage is dominated by national headlines.

“It’s been hard for candidates for governor to get a lot of space and free press,” Newsom said. “We have open primaries, and so it’s just the top two (candidates), people forget that.”

What else did poll find?

Among likely voters surveyed, 86% said they plan to cast a ballot for June’s primary election.

Fifty-two percent of voters said they believe the state is on the “wrong track,” while 33% said the Golden State is headed in the “right direction.”

When is the governor’s race?

Voters will choose the Golden State’s next governor during California’s general election on Tuesday, Nov. 3.

What’s next for June primary?

The California Secretary of State’s Office is currently verifying the candidates’ campaign paperwork. A certified list will be posted on Thursday, March 26. 

When is the June primary — and how do Californians register to vote?

California’s primary election will be held on June 2. The last day to register to vote for the primary is May 18. 

Californians can register online or by mail.

“You can also pick up an application at your county elections office, any Department of Motor Vehicles office, and many post offices, public libraries, and government offices,” according to the state’s website. “To have a paper application mailed to you, call your county elections office or the Secretary of State’s toll-free voter hotline at (800) 345-VOTE.”

Those who are registered to vote will receive a vote-by-mail ballot for the June primary election, which can be returned via mail, drop box, or in person at a dedicated voting center.

County elections offices will begin mailing ballots on May 4, and ballot drop-off locations will open the following day. 

You can track the status of your ballot using the state’s WheresMyBallot tracking tool. 

USA TODAY’s Noe Padilla’s reporting contributed to this article.