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• A new poll shows Francesca Hong leading the Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor with 27% support.
• In a general election matchup, Republican Tom Tiffany leads or ties with Hong among different voter groups.
• Nearly half of Democratic primary voters, 45%, remain undecided three weeks before the election.
• The poll was conducted before recent shakeups in the race, including Sara Rodriguez dropping out and David Crowley re-entering.

MADISON – A democratic socialist running in a swing state President Donald Trump won in two previous elections is leading in the Democratic primary for governor, a July 22 survey shows.

The Marquette University Law School poll, however, shows Francesca Hong, 37, either trailing or tied with Republican Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin’s closely watched gubernatorial contest, which experts rate as a critical 2026 midterm toss-up.

Hong, a three-term state legislator, received 26% of primary voters’ support, while former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes received 15%. When the second choices of those who supported Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, who quit the race after the poll was conducted, were allocated among other Democrats, Hong’s support grew to 27% and Barnes’ moved to 18%.

But when looking at the Democratic field, Tiffany leads Hong 43%-40% among registered voters and ties with her at 44% among likely voters in the general election.

“What this does show you is, as we like to do in Wisconsin, fairly tight race,” Marquette University Law School poll director Charles Franklin said July 22. “A little bit of variation from candidate to candidate, but not a huge amount.”

Among Democratic primary voters, the poll also showed that 45% had not yet chosen a candidate.

Poll: Most voters hold unfavorable view of democratic socialism

Across the country, progressive contenders such as Hong, a three-term state legislator, have toppled more establishment liberals in Colorado, New York and Washington, D.C., this year.

Following New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s stunning win last year, many on the political left are leveraging a newfound energy around promises of affordable housing, universal child care and lower utility bills.

Those primary victories have been confined mostly to deeply blue congressional districts and urban centers rather than purple-leaning battleground states, however. There is still a larger question being raised by skeptics within the party about how Democratic Socialists of America contenders will fare in those places with independents and more moderate voters.

Asked about their opinion of democratic socialism, for instance, the Wisconsin survey found 49% of registered voters expressed an unfavorable opinion. Just 25% had a favorable view and 26% didn’t have an opinion at all.

But Hong argued that the electability question is a red herring in a July 17 interview with journalist David Sirota, saying it is “dangerous” for the party to miscalculate how her campaign is bringing new voters to the table.

“Our supporters are people who haven’t engaged in politics before,” she said. “We’ve fought the disillusionment and apathy that the (Democrats) keep losing to and not being able to grow a broader coalition.”

Wisconsin governor’s preferred choice re-enters primary

The poll comes just days after the Wisconsin Democratic primary field imploded when Rodriguez dropped out after revealing that her campaign was broke at the same time it was projecting momentum. She had received the endorsement of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who got back into the race in a stunning week of chaos.

Crowley is being endorsed by Gov. Tony Evers, who passed on a third term.

That shakeup gives the public a limited view of the true electoral landscape as Marquette University Law School pollsters were in the field July 8-16, or as Crowley left the field and Rodriguez’s campaign imploded. The survey concluded before Rodriguez left the race and Crowley got back in.

Joel Brennan, an Evers cabinet official, received 5%, and state Sen. Kelda Roys received 2% of voters’ support without Rodriguez in the race. It’s the fourth Marquette University Law School poll of Democratic primary voters that Hong has led.

“When we first asked back in October, [Hong] was in first place with I believe 6%. Then in February she was in first place with 11%. In March it was 14%. And now at 26%. So she has been the leading candidate in all of these, but with those enormous percentages of undecided, not a huge share,” Franklin said.

“On the other hand, consistency counts for something, and we see that consistency in her performance over this entire time.”

The poll surveyed 838 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. The margin of error within the Democratic sample was +/- 6.1 percentage points.